Drone Roll Odds Calculator
Convert a displayed drone rarity into your chance across repeated rolls, then see how many attempts reach 50%, 75%, 90%, 95%, or 99%.
Enter your roll assumptions
Use the effective one-in-N rarity shown in your current game session. The model assumes identical, independent rolls.
Across 100 rolls at 1 in 1,000 per roll.
Probability is not a guarantee. A session can miss even after passing a 90% or 99% cumulative chance.
How many rolls reach each target?
Calculated from the same one-in-1,000 assumption.
Three numbers, three different questions
Probability is easier to use when cumulative chance, expected value, and target rolls stay separate.
Will this session hit at least once?
The headline result measures the probability of one or more hits across the number of rolls entered.
What is the long-run average?
Rolls divided by N is an average across many equivalent sessions, not a promise for this session.
How many attempts reach a confidence level?
Choose a percentage to estimate the first roll count that reaches or passes that cumulative chance.
How the probability is calculated
For a displayed rarity of 1 in N, a single roll has probability 1/N. The probability of missing once is 1 − 1/N. Under the independent-roll assumption, the chance of missing every attempt is that value raised to the number of rolls.
To estimate the rolls needed for a target probability, the calculator rearranges the same formula. Calculations use numerically stable logarithmic functions so very rare one-in-N values remain usable.
What the calculator knows
- the one-in-N value you enter;
- the exact number of attempts you enter;
- the target cumulative probability you choose; and
- the independent-roll formula shown above.
What the calculator does not claim to know
- Mine a Planet’s internal Luck calculation;
- whether an undisclosed pity or guaranteed-roll system exists;
- temporary event, item, battery, alien, or server multipliers;
- whether displayed rarities are rounded; or
- whether the developer changes rates during the beta.
If the game already shows a rarity after applying your current Luck, enter that effective displayed value instead of trying to reverse-engineer an undocumented base rate.
A simple example
Suppose a drone is shown as 1 in 1,000. One hundred independent rolls produce about a 9.52% chance of at least one hit—not 10% exactly, because the possible outcomes overlap. About 693 rolls reach 50%, while roughly 2,302 rolls reach 90% under the same assumptions.
Use probability as a planning tool
Free unlimited rolls remove a currency limit, but time still matters. Choose a stopping point before a long roll session, compare the target with your current progression goal, and avoid treating a high percentage as a debt the game must repay.
For more context, read Roll Odds Explained, review the Beginner Guide, or check the Laser Drones wiki entry.
Calculator FAQ
How do I use the Mine a Planet roll odds calculator?
Enter the effective one-in-N rarity shown in your current game session, enter how many rolls you plan to make, and choose a target cumulative chance. The calculator shows the probability of at least one hit and the rolls needed for common milestones.
Does this calculator include the Mine a Planet Luck formula?
No. It uses the effective one-in-N value you enter and assumes independent rolls. The complete hidden Luck, pity, and server-side formulas are not documented here.
Does a 90% or 99% result guarantee a drone?
No. A cumulative probability is not a guarantee. Even at 99%, about one equivalent session in one hundred would still be expected to miss under the model.
Why are the expected hits different from the chance of a hit?
Expected hits is the long-run average number of successes across many equivalent sessions. Chance of a hit is the probability that the current session produces one or more successes. They answer different questions.
Can I calculate odds rarer than one in a billion?
Yes. The input supports values up to one in 25 trillion, matching the extreme rarity scale advertised in the public game description. Use the effective value visible in your own session whenever possible.
Why might my in-game result differ from the calculator?
The game may apply undocumented Luck, changing rates, pity rules, event boosts, dependencies between rolls, or display rounding. The calculator is accurate only for the independent probability assumption and values entered.